WASHINGTON –– National security experts cautioned Tuesday that Lebanon faces a narrow opportunity to permanently curb Hezbollah, but only if U.S. policy focuses on dismantling the group’s financial and political networks, not just its weapons.
“Lebanon today presents a historic and time-limited opportunity for U.S. and regional engagement,” said Dana Stroul, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “This Iran-backed terrorist group’s continued unwillingness to give up its arms is what has been holding Lebanon back from stabilization and recovery.”
The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa examined policy options at a hearing as Lebanon approaches parliamentary elections in May. Experts and lawmakers warned that disarmament will fail without aggressive economic reform and tighter controls on the cash-based systems that allowed the group to rebuild.
“Lebanon is at a crossroads,” said Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., chairman of the subcommittee. “The November 2024 ceasefire agreement that brought conflict between Israel and Iran to an end has provided the international community with an unprecedented opportunity for Lebanon.”
Stroul said Hezbollah’s military losses, Iran’s weakened regional position and new leadership in Beirut have combined to create conditions that did not exist before, but warned that U.S. policy has not fully adjusted.
Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told lawmakers that while Hezbollah suffered heavy losses during Israel’s military campaign in late 2024, the group did not collapse. Instead, she said it adapted. Hezbollah has shifted its focus away from confrontation and toward protecting its financial and political infrastructure, according to her.
“(Hezbollah) has redirected its efforts toward protecting the systems that generate money and immunity,” Ghaddar said. “Weapons can be collected, but money keeps flowing.”
That economic ecosystem includes influence over key state institutions, access to cash and informal financial networks, and the ability to rebuild military capabilities quietly. Ghaddar warned that without disrupting these foundations, any disarmament effort would be temporary at best.
David Schenker, another senior fellow at the Washington Institute and former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, said that disarmament progress by the Lebanese Armed Forces has been slow and uneven since the 2024 ceasefire agreement.
“(The Lebanese Armed Forces) are present, but they are not in control,” Schenker said. “Hezbollah still controls the region.”
Beyond military issues, witnesses emphasized Hezbollah’s reliance on Lebanon’s growing cash economy, which expanded after the country’s financial collapse in 2020. Schenker said that without economic reform, disarmament alone would fail to weaken Hezbollah’s grip on the country.
“Disarmament is necessary but insufficient,” Schenker said. “Hezbollah thrives with its leverage amongst a financial crisis that benefits from the state’s systemic corruption.”
Hezbollah uses informal transfer systems and front companies to move funds, including money sent from Iran, despite U.S. sanctions. Witnesses said this financial resilience allows the group to continue funding political operations and rebuilding military capabilities.
Lawmakers raised concerns about whether U.S. security assistance is being used effectively, questioning whether continued funding is reasonable when enforcement and accountability are absent.
“If we can’t even get Lebanon comfortable with securing the border, it’s really hard for me to say, let’s put additional American taxpayer dollars into the country,” said Rep. Michael Baumgartner, R-Wash.
Stroul reemphasized the need for U.S. intervention, stating that policy must extend beyond security assistance to include economic reform and election reconstruction, especially as parliamentary elections are coming up in May. Absent U.S. leadership would mean that other regional actors will step in without conditions that reinforce disarmament or reform.
“Without something tangible on the table, the United States is ceding much of its influence to others,” Stroul said.
Analysts cautioned that stalled electoral reforms and voter intimidation could entrench Hezbollah further, even as its military power has declined. Weakening Hezbollah will require sustained pressure across military, financial, and political fronts.
“This is not a policy opportunity that has existed before,” Stroul said. “But it will close if the United States does not act.”
