After winning the German elections, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s mainstream conservatives and likely the next chancellor, stated Sunday that Germany must “achieve independence from the United States, step by step.”
This marks a significant shift in U.S.-German relations, as the two countries have been strong allies for decades. Experts link this change to President Trump’s statements distancing the United States from Europe and NATO during the first month of his presidency.
Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, said during an Atlantic Council discussion on Tuesday that Germany had an opportunity to embrace Trump’s approach. It could have better relations with Russia, distanced itself from Ukraine, and maintained a strong alliance with the United States. She suggested that Germany could have taken the position, “Well, if Trump is throwing Ukraine under the bus, we better defend our security. Sort of Poland’s eastern border rather than Ukraine’s western border.”
However, after Trump’s latest statements on Europe, Fix said, this is no longer an option because Trump seemed to have connected Ukraine and European security.
“Now it’s very clear that these two issues are linked, that if Ukraine comes under the bus, NATO and European security are also up for grabs,” she said. “That is something which is good for Ukraine because it makes the Europeans and Germans realize that Ukraine’s security is linked to Europe’s security, in Trump’s thinking and in their own thinking.”
Earlier this month, Trump threatened the European Union with tariffs after imposing them on Canada and Mexico. In January, he questioned whether the U.S. should be spending anything on NATO, though he added that it “should certainly be helping them.” Additionally, he strengthened ties with Vladimir Putin, organizing Russia-U.S. peace talks on the war in Ukraine without inviting Ukrainian representatives.
Jörn Fleck, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, said during Tuesday’s discussion that if Trump continues to question America’s commitment to European security, Germany’s new chancellor will be forced to consider how to “protect its core national interests without reliance on a seemingly unreliable ally in Washington, D.C.”
“I think the downside of those comments is clear. It risks fueling or fanning anti-American sentiments,” Fleck added, referring to Trump’s rhetoric, which he described as equating Washington with Moscow.
Fleck also warned that Trump’s administration might respond to Merz’s remarks dismissively, suggesting they could say: “Go right ahead, knock yourself out.”
Yet, following the election results, Trump congratulated the winning party and emphasized similarities between American and German societies.
“Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social page.
Immigration is indeed one of the biggest concerns in Germany, much like in the United States. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which opposes immigration, finished second in the elections, nearly doubling its support compared to 2021. Elisabeth Zerofsky, a contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine, said during Tuesday’s discussion that when she asked young AfD supporters what concerns them most, they cited immigration.
“This is an interesting response, coming from a part of Germany that has not had high levels of migration,” Zerofsky said. “There is some migration there, but not a huge amount. But there’s this perception. And it’s, of course, being boosted by the AfD that our country is not ours anymore. It’s been taken away from us.”
Before Germany’s elections, JD Vance and Elon Musk expressed support for the AfD party. Vance met with the party’s leader, Alice Weidel. When Musk virtually joined their rally in the German city of Halle, calling them “the best hope for Germany.”
