In a western Pennsylvania district that President Donald Trump won by 19 points, experts says there’s a good chance that Democratic women, and by some GOP female voters, could turn out in large enough numbers to boost Democrat Conor Lamb to a seat in Congress in Tuesday’s special.
Jennie Sweet-Cushman, assistant director of the Pennsylvania Center for Women and Politics at Chatham University, explained that she’s seen a large number of women campaign for Lamb for two reasons: Lamb’s moderate political positions and women’s anti-Trump feelings.
She also said that Lamb’s stances as pro-life and pro-gun make him more appealable to some moderate and conservative women – traditionally Republicans — who live in the district’s mix of rural areas and southern suburbs of Pittsburgh and who have traditionally voted Republican. By taking positions against gun control and abortion rights, Lamb “frees voters up to vote based on other things,” she said, adding that if it comes at the price of not supporting the Republican candidate Rick Saccone, backed by Trump, voters could be OK going against their party ties.
Sandra McQuillan-Dodd, 42, said one reason she’s voting for Lamb is that prefers a candidate who doesn’t use a lot of negative political advertising.
“I have gotten so much negative mail from Saccone that I just couldn’t vote for him if I wanted to,” McQuillan-Dodd said. “Tell me what you want and what you’re providing. If I knew more about him maybe I would vote for him, but what I know is about what he says about other people.” She added that she had voted for President Donald Trump in the 2016 election, but she said that she votes based on the candidate, not the party.
Sandra McQuillan-Dodd, 42, said she’s voting for Conor Lamb in part because she disliked his negative political advertising. (Caroline Vakil/MNS)
Other residents are worried about keeping their Social Security benefits, health care and pensions – benefits that Fay Smith, 70, thinks would be taken away if a Republican candidate is elected.
“My husband is a retired United Mine Worker and so we count on that for our living and he [Lamb] has promised to protect the pension bill that is before Congress. I also think that we need some young blood in there,” Smith said.
Fay Smith, 70, said she’s voting for Conor Lamb because she said Lamb would protect miners’ pensions, an important source of income for her and her husband. (Caroline Vakil/MNS)
Lamb and Saccone are fighting for a congressional seat that was vacated by former Republican Rep. Tim Murphy in October after he admitted that he was involved in an extramarital affair and had asked the woman to get an abortion (Murphy is pro-life.) Murphy had served in Congress since 2002 and in the last two congressional elections, 2014 and 2016, he ran unopposed. The last time Murphy ran against a Democratic candidate was against Larry Maggi in 2012. Maggi received 36 percent of the vote –122,146 votes — while Murphy won 64 percent, or 216,727 votes. However, experts say this race could be different after Cook Political Report switched its rating of the special election from “lean Republican” to “toss up.”
Lamb’s and Saccone’s campaigns did not respond to repeated requests for comment regarding what their candidate is doing to target women voters in the special election.
Susan Carroll, senior scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, said that there’s a risk that Trump’s campaigning for Saccone could turn off female voters given their low approval rating of the president.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll published Jan. 29 found that 65 percent of women disapprove of Trump as president. A Monmouth University poll released Dec. 13 said that “Republican women (67 percent) are somewhat less likely than Republican men (78 percent) to give Trump a positive rating,” and that the “results are down nine points among GOP women since September and by five points among GOP men since the fall.”
But the Trump connection is a plus for Heidi Carlough, 54, who supporting Saccone because Trump has campaigned for him at least twice in recent months, including Saturday. Lamb, she said, is too affiliated ideologically with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
Heidi Carlough, 54, said she’s voting for Rick Saccone because she’s a Trump supporter and would vote for whoever Trump picked. (Caroline Vakil/MNS)
Mona Morris, a 60-year-old Democrat, voted for Trump in 2016 because she was angry that she didn’t see the Democrats helping her or accomplishing anything. She says she’s voting for Trump because the Democrats haven’t yet shown her a reason to return.
Turnout for midterms is traditionally lower than during presidential elections because they tend to be more “low-key” with less information and visibility, said Carroll. Special During midterm elections, less attentive voters and a disproportionate number of Democrats are historically less likely to vote, leaving electorates that are more white and conservative or Republican.
But Carroll said this special election and the midterms in general could be different given the amount of media attention the race is receiving and a more energized Democratic leadership nationally for special elections and the November midterms. She explained that part of the mobilization she’s seeing from women can be connected to the “disappointment that Hillary Clinton didn’t win, that we missed an opportunity to have our first women president” as well as Trump’s “personal conduct as president and his policy decisions.”.
Carroll said that Saccone’s affiliation with Trump could also depress voter turnout on the Republican side. One question for this special election is whether there’s enough energized Democratic women voting to counter the usual drop-off experts see in the Democratic electorate during the midterms. The other is whether Republican voter turnout is suppressed or if some will switch party lines for this election.
“This is a really great opportunity for Democratic women in the state to be kind of mobilizing themselves and kind of gaining some of that power because they’re playing a significant role in this Lamb campaign and I think will ultimately make the difference if he were to be successful,” Sweet-Cushman said.
Mona Morris, a 60-year-old Democrat, voted for Trump in 2016 because she was angry that she didn’t see the Democrats helping her or accomplishing anything. She says she’s voting for Trump because the Democrats haven’t yet shown her a reason to return.
Turnout for midterms is traditionally lower than during presidential elections because they tend to be more “low-key” with less information and visibility, said Carroll. Special During midterm elections, less attentive voters and a disproportionate number of Democrats are historically less likely to vote, leaving electorates that are more white and conservative or Republican.
But Carroll said this special election and the midterms in general could be different given the amount of media attention the race is receiving and a more energized Democratic leadership nationally for special elections and the November midterms. She explained that part of the mobilization she’s seeing from women can be connected to the “disappointment that Hillary Clinton didn’t win, that we missed an opportunity to have our first women president” as well as Trump’s “personal conduct as president and his policy decisions.”.
Carroll said that Saccone’s affiliation with Trump could also depress voter turnout on the Republican side. One question for this special election is whether there’s enough energized Democratic women voting to counter the usual drop-off experts see in the Democratic electorate during the midterms. The other is whether Republican voter turnout is suppressed or if some will switch party lines for this election.
“This is a really great opportunity for Democratic women in the state to be kind of mobilizing themselves and kind of gaining some of that power because they’re playing a significant role in this Lamb campaign and I think will ultimately make the difference if he were to be successful,” Sweet-Cushman said.
Published in conjunction with 
