By Jesse Kirsch
WASHINGTON – A growing Chinese space program could challenge American preeminence in the great unknown and cause a shift in strategic balance.
Experts, testifying Wednesday before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, warned that China’s space exploration is accompanied by military initiative.
In 2007, China carried out an anti-satellite test, destroying one in space. The test worried President George W. Bush and displayed potential threat to U.S. military capabilities.
The commission, mandated by Congress to report on national security impact of U.S.-China relations, released a 2014 report to Congress which highlighted China’s ability to interfere with U.S. satellites. Furthermore, the report predicted such capabilities could provide greater military flexibility for the Chinese—just as a nuclear deterrent fuels the stability-instability problem.
Commissioner Jeffrey L. Fiedler ask questions at a hearing to discuss China’s space program and its impact on U.S. national security. (Jesse Kirsch/MNS)
This competition echoes the Cold War’s U.S.-Soviet Space Race in the 1960s. With U.S.-Russia relations deteriorating, Richard Fisher Jr. of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, suggested Wednesday that increased joint space initiatives between Russia and China could threaten the West.
Fisher and other experts feel the “sanctuary” approach to space exploration should prevail instead, preserving peace.
Space will remain a sanctuary, Dr. Roger Handberg of the University of Central Florida argued, because a “kinetic war” would turn Earth’s periphery into a “graveyard.” With debris floating beyond our atmosphere, commercial use of outer space, such as for GPS satellites, would cease. Thus, rational leaders should theoretically avoid confrontation in space.
But Commissioner Jeffrey L. Fiedler, a co-chair of the panel, seemed skeptical. Would desperate nations, fending off powerful enemies, worry about the future of commercial space in the face of conflict?
National Defense University’s Phillip Saunders acknowledged this sentiment. The U.S. and China aren’t ready to sit down and discuss sanctuary yet, explained Saunders. But, he added, the first step is helping the Chinese leadership realize its developing dependence on prevailing military and commercial space systems.
For the moment, however, the U.S.-China dichotomy is illustrated by an “asymmetric situation where the U.S. military is more dependent on space assets than China.” Thus, added Saunders, “counter-space” systems are attractive to China, for now.
