By Daniel Hersh
WASHINGTON – With militant Islamist group Boko Haram continuing its aggressive hostilities, Nigeria’s election, which has been postponed from Saturday until March 28, may be marred by violence, especially violence toward women, experts said Monday.
Nigeria’s election commission recently delayed the election, citing security of voters as a major concern. However, there is also speculation that President Goodluck Jonathan, facing unexpectedly tight competition from former military dictator Muhammadu Buhari, wanted to delay to shore up support.
Pauline Baker, President Emeritus of the Fund for Peace said that postponing the elections is “a psychological and political victory for Boko Haram.”
Boko Haram was declared a terrorist group by the United States in 2013 and has killed thousands of people, including the kidnapping of 276 schoolgirls in April 2014. In January alone, it killed around 2,000 people. It has been most active in the northeast region of Nigeria.
In the past elections, the country has been split between the Muslim north and the Christian south. This election is not expected to be different.
Experts said politics in Nigeria have evolved since its last election in 2011. Observers are preparing for violence or other security issues that could occur as a result of the election and its postponement. In 2011, almost 1,000 people died in election-related attacks.
According to Patricia Taft, program director of the Fund for Peace, there has been more violence leading up to this election than in 2011, especially violence towards women.
“The trends that we have so far is that it is definitely more violent,” Taft said. “It is more violent throughout the country, and it seems to be that is increasing…My perception from when I was on the ground was that this postponement of the election is not going to do anything to make things better.”
After originally being planned for Feb. 14, the election was delayed until March 28 so a military offensive can be launched to control four northeast states that are threatened by Boko Haram.
Jonathan, a Christian southerner, won the 2011 election and is running for re-election with the People’s Democratic Party ticket. The PDP has won every election since 1999, but both Jonathan and Buhari command about 42 percent of the vote, according to a December 2014 poll.
Many worry that if Jonathan wins, the north will break into violence and if he loses, the south will.
According to another Gallup poll, only 13 percent of Nigerians are confident in the honesty of elections. Baker said the government has tried to reduce voter fraud, but there have been reports of voters saying they cast multiple ballots in a single election despite those efforts.
“As far as the commission, I think they’ve made good-faith efforts to hold a good election,” she said. “It’s the environment in which this is held that the problem comes in.”
