The percentage of patients at health care service locations who are identified as having flu-like symptoms in each of the CDC’s 10 regions for the week of 1/6/13.
WASHINGTON — Here’s the good news this flu season: federal health data shows Washington isn’t having a widespread flu outbreak. The bad news? That conclusion’s most likely wrong.
Actually, D.C. is likely experiencing the same major outbreaks as Maryland, Virginia and the rest of the nation, according to local and federal health officials.
The reason for the confusion is that the Centers for Disease Control monitors and evaluates outbreaks by using “sentinel”, or highly trusted, physicians and clinics to report cases of influenza back to the agency.
“In Washington D.C., there’s probably not enough sentinel points so we should look to the states around D.C. to see that they are dealing with it,” CDC spokesman Curtis Allen said. “If you look at Maryland and Virginia, they’re having a moderate to severe season like much of the nation.”
The CDC has labeled Washington’s flu season as a breakout on only as a “local” outbreak on its scale, while 48 states suffer through “widespread” outbreaks and two other states have “regional” outbreaks. That does not mean Washington is actually enduring a less severe flu season comparatively, Allen said.
In fact, based on the government health information from D.C. suburbs in Maryland and Virginia, that the capital is probably experiencing a more severe than average flu season, assuming it is on par with its neighbors, Allen said.
Although there is less data available from Washington than from states, an official from the D.C. Department of Health said it is clear that the 2012-2013 flu season has seen a sharp increase in reported cases in the city.
Two winters ago, there were 62 cases of the influenza virus reported to the D.C. Department of Health from sentinel locations, but last winter that number dropped to 11 cases. This year, D.C. Department of Health Communications Director Najma Roberts said that number is expected to be much higher.
“We have definitely seen a spike,” Roberts said. “It’s definitely higher than last year. But last year was on the other extreme because we had a milder winter.”
Allen said it is not unusual to see areas of the nation experience the peak of flu season at different times. This year, the East Coast experienced the brunt of the flu earlier in the season, and the outbreak has only moved west in recent weeks.
This uncertainty makes it hard to predict whether the D.C. area is likely to see a further spike in cases of the flu.
“We don’t know why influenza will skip a state and why one state a few hundred miles will have less severe influenza,” Allen said. “It’s an extremely unpredictable disease. You really can’t tell a lot about a season until after the season.”
Another reason it is hard to predict how severe a season will be in any one location is an inability to be sure at what point in the season the virus’s spread will peak. In most areas, the flu runs through a cycle of approximately 12 weeks during which severity increases, peaks, and dissipates.
Often, the peak comes during February, meaning this flu season may have started earlier than normal when a smaller percentage of the population would have received their vaccine.
Pinpointing exactly when the cycle begins is difficult, even for states with a large amount of data to work with. For Washington, that challenge can be even greater because there are so few sentinel clinics and doctors.
“We don’t like to predict,” Roberts said. “You never know, it’s a combination of the weather and there are different flu strains. We want to make sure that people are prepared, and I don’t like to say that it will peak in February because then people won’t get their flu shot or they won’t cover their sneezes properly, because they aren’t as concerned once it’s peaked.”
Pia Duryea, director of membership and communications at the Medical Society of D.C., said the Washington physicians her group represents haven’t been reporting that they’re seeing massive numbers of flu cases.
“I haven’t been hearing a lot from our members about the flu outbreak overwhelming them,” Duryea said. “That doesn’t mean it’s not prevalent, but it means it’s not yet coming back to us.”
Allen stressed that in addition to the health tips that public health officials such as Roberts offer – including staying home when sick, covering coughs and sneezes with the inside of an elbow, and washing hands frequently – the flu vaccine is one of the strongest tools in fighting the spread of the virus.
This year’s vaccine treats three forms of the virus: two “A” strains, which are similar to each other, and a slightly different “B” strain.
It has come under some criticism in the media from those who believe it is insufficient. Allen said these criticisms are off base and that the vaccine is about 62 percent effective, which is in line with previous years.
“That rate means it is effective, and that percentage is probably typical,” Allen said. “This year we have a good match. But for the elderly and others who need the vaccine the most, it’s least effective, so it’s important that if you’re in contact with those people you should be vaccinated.”
This reliance on the vaccine, coupled with the high rates of the flu that Washington is likely experiencing, have caused several pharmacies in the capital to run out of flu shots for short periods of time. CVS Pharmacy public relations director Mike DeAngelis said these shortages of vaccines are not surprising given the severity of the flu season.
“The current high demand is unprecedented for this time of year,” DeAngelis said in an email. “To date, we have provided over four million flu shots this season, doubling the number of flu shots we provided the entire previous season.”
D.C. resident June Brown, 64, said she and her family have not been hit by the flu. She credits that to the vaccines they received.
“Everyone around me (in her family) has had the cold, but so far not really any flu,” Brown, a lawyer, said. “They all got the shot.”
Muftia McCartin, a 57-year-old Washington resident, said she has noticed that this flu season appears to be more intense than those of years past.
“I got the flu this year and I never get it,” McCartin, also a lawyer, said. “Everyone at work, all my friends, they’ve all had it. It’s just going around to everyone.”
